Doom and Gloom or Smooth Sailing? What is the 2009 Vancouver Real Estate Forecast and Housing Outlook in the Lower Mainland now and beyond 2010?

2009 Vancouver Housing Forecast and Lower Mainland Property Outlook for 2010 Olympic Year

There is much talk about the Vancouver real estate forecast for 2009 and further ahead into the Winter Olymipic 2010 Vancouver property market forecast, but really, there is no one in this world who can predict what will happen to the Lower Mainland housing market. There are predictions and outlooks, forecasts and opinions, but these are not based on facts or reality, just yet. This is an article that talks about the future of the Vancouver real estate market in terms of forecasting the 2009 Vancouver housing market as well as the property outlook further into 2010 before and beyond the Winter Olympics. Based on fundamental issues such as the Vancouver economy, in and out migration, housing affordability, GDP growth and other factors such as aging population and transient work force, there are many things to be happy about in terms of the Vancouver housing forecast for 2009 and beyond, but there are also many traps and assumptions being made that should not be by the typical Lower Mainland home buyer and investor. A wide range of chief economists, bank leaders and Greater Vancouver real estate experts have taken claim to what they think is the true outlook for the Vancouver property outlook 2009 as well as the Vancouve real estate forecast for 2010. Published, blogged and submitted to newspapers and magazines, these experts’ opinions vary widely in their perception of what is going on with the current housing market and the 2009 Vancouver housing real estate forecast that is already upon us. Let’s take a look.

The Vancouver Real Estate Forecast for 2009

The Greater Vancouver property market has faced an unprecended growth period during the past decade, lead by huge property gains in West Vancouver, the west side of Vancouver, downtown as well as many suburbs like Richmond, Burnaby, New West, Surrey and Abbotsford posting some of the largest gains in Canada real estate market. However, during the past 10 years, many homebuyers and investors have failed to notice why the property values and housing market was keeping afloat and exponentially increasing in value seamlingly every month. With a growth economy based on commodities, construction (of course), employment was at its peak and unemployment was at all time lows in Greater Vancouver. However, everything changed as soon as the global economic crisis took hold of world economies, trade and credit financing. Vancouver real estate did not escape the US housing market liquidation. Perhaps, we have fared better than our countertops down south through 2008 and into 2009, but most Vancouver municipalities have faced large drops in real estate housing values in 2009 already. The effect of long term exponential growth in Greater Vancouver property values has taken its negative effect on the property forecast 2009 for Vancouver. Affordability is now the major issue facing first time homebuyers (who service the engine that creates a balance Vancouver real estate market) and with property affordability in Vancouver at it’s all time lowest (one of the most expensive cities to live in the world), this segment of the population has been kep out for about a year now. With the economy in ruins and jobs disappearing, Vancouver is in a tight position when it comes to people wanting to buy a home right now. In addition, with credit tightening throughout all the major banks, it has become very difficult for first time home buyers to get a good mortgage product for any home that they choose. Therefore, the 2009 forecast for Vancouver real estate and the Vancouver housing outlook 2009 is for a more stable market than the last quarter of 2008, but don’t expect any huge returns or gain in value. Stabilization of the Greater Vancouver property market may come later in the fourth quarter of 2009, and forecasts on the Vancouver housing market 2009 suggest that gains in value won’t even begin until mid-2010. As far as the 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is concerned, you can probably expect a slight drop in future sales prices and a huge drop in sales volume through the first six months of 2009. The forecast for Vancouver home market 2009 later in the year is for a steadying of the sales volume and maybe even a slight gain property values, but nothing is set in stone. As long credit is tight and the global economy is in trouble, the Vancouver real estate forecast 2009 seems grim for those looking to sell. For those homebuyers looking to purchase a home or for first time home buyers, 2009 may be the best opportunity for you to get into the market. With a 2009 Vancouver housing forecast for a slight drop in property values coupled with low interest rates for both variable and fixed mortgage financing, the outlook for Vancouver real estate market for buyers is bright. There have been several surveys that have shown that homebuyers in Vancouver are changing their perspective on buying a new home this year compared to the last six months of last year. If this is the case, the 2009 Vancouver housing real estate outlook should be good heading into 2010.

Winter Olympics and Its Affect on the 2010 Vancouver Property Outlook

With recent surveys and analysis, many experts believe that the US housing market will come out of its downward spiral and foreclosure problems by the end of 2009. These same articles and experts expect the Greater Vancouver housing outlook and sales to balance out after that, so some time in very late 2009 or early 2010. With the winter Olympics showcasing Vancouver, there is a lot to be said about creating a renewed interest in the city, not seen since Expo ’86. The 2010 Vancouver housing forecast and Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for smooth sailing once 2010 Olympics hit and there are many reasons why. The Winter Olympics will employ many people before, during and after the Games, creating a legacy like no other large event can provide. The city will be showcased to most of the world’s population, profiling Vancouver as one of the most beautiful cities in the world. In addition, mortgage rates are expected to stay very low through 2010, so that Vancouver home buyers looking to purchase in a year’s time, will still be able to get great financing products. The Lower Mainland property market has seen it’s share of negative news including the cancelled Coquitlam Riverbend project, and the Homer & Helmcken plus Garden City Richmond condo receivership problems. Now comes the Millennium 2010 Olympic Village fiasco with over-runs, debt mounting and problems with completing the affordable housing component. With all of this, it doesn’t seem like the 2010 Vancouver real estate outlook should be very good, but it is. And then, you can also add the delay of the West Vancouver Evelyn project, the cancellation of the Hills Vancouver condos, the delay of the Ritz-Carleton condo hotel residences and the cancellation of Jameson House and the forecast for 2010 Vancouver housing market should look bleak. However, it is safe to say that condo and housing inventory has been kept in check through all of these delays and cancellations. With an ever increasing population moving into the Lower Mainland, the outlook for 2010 Vancouver housing market is for a shortgage of units by years’ end and into 2011, even with the estimated completion of these delayed projects. With many developers holding back and not building for another year, this will cause some problems in terms of new inventory that comes onto the market for homebuyers. With this limited supply of homes, the 2010 Vancouver real estate forecast is calling for an increase in value, sales figures and sales volumes through the year and into 2011. By 2012, it is expected that Greater Vancouver will again face a shortgage of homes and affordable housing such as condos and the construction process will start yet again. Therefore, the Winter Olympics will provide a vehicle for the Vancouver property forecast in 2010 to be positive … and with sales volumes and prices increasing, the 2010 Vancouver housing outlook is very positive to say the least.

So What Do the 2010 and 2009 Vancouver Real Estate Outlook Mean to You?

If you currently own your own home or you have invested in condos/townhomes that you are now renting or have yet to close, HOLD ON to your property. The biggest mistake homebuyers and investors make is to listen to the top headline news about the world falling down. This is not a time to panic. Rather, you should think through and calculate your monthly cashflow to see if you can afford your place still as well as whether or not to keep your rental properties. If you are tight on cash, sure, sell. However, if you aren’t, holding onto your Vancouver property and real estate through 2009 and 2010 is a great way to ensure that you will not incur losses or have to pay capital gains tax if you have made money. The 2009 Vancouver housing forecast is good and the Vancouver real estate outlook for 2010 is even better. By keeping your rental homes for another 12 months, you may end up facing an upswing in property values again during the Olympics when Vancouver is on the world stage. If you are a first time home buyer, 2009 may be the BEST year to purchase your new home. With a drop in Vancouver property 2009 in addition to great mortgage rates and financing packages, you can skip ahead of the rest of us who purchase during the past five years and locked in at higher rates. If you can afford it comfortably, 2009 is the best year to purchase Vancouver property. The forecast for 2010 Vancouver housing market is calling for an increase in value as well as both fixed and variable mortgage rates, so why wait? As an investor, the 2009 Vancouver housing outlook is bright for you as well. Again, as a real estate investor, cashflow is king. If you can operate your business with positive cashflow (meaning your rental income is higher than all expenses), you should put in your due diligence and start purchasing property again. These are great times for you. 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for more liquidation events such as the MACBULK Onni condo sales in addition to many other real estate developers providing incentives to purchase their available inventory. The forecast for the 2009 Vancouver real estate outlook is calling for more developers taking on the GST, anywhere from 10 to 35% off the original pre-construction pricing, no strata fees or property fees paid for for the first year or even getting a new car with the purchase of a new home. These incentives will not last through the 2009 Vancouver property market and by 2010, the forecast for Vancouver housing outlook will again re-start bidding wars for good property. These gloom and doom times are actually not so bad when you look at all the factors involved with how you can take advantage of these special times.

Other News Items:

Major Banks in Canada Slash their Prime Rates and See Recovery Sooner Rather Than Later

According to the Real Estate Weekly for Vancouver, the Bank of Canada slashed their prime lending key interest rate to its lowest level in the history of the country this month and all of the major banks, surprisingly, followed suite with a drop in their bank prime rates too. The central bank of Canada cut the trend setting over night rate by 0.5% to the lowest 1% level in history, lower than the 1958 rate of 1.12%. In mortgage moves, the Royal Bank of Canada slashed its one two and three year rates by 1.1%. It’s five year posted rate drops to 5.79% and there is a five year closed rate special at only 4.49%. Many economists see the Central Bank of Canada lowering its rate again by as much as 0.5% as early as the next BoC announcement on March 3, 2009. Overall the BoC predicts that inflation will average at a very lot 1.1 per cent this year and won’t return to the target inflation rate of 2% until 2011. There is speculation that the recovery in Canada will come sooner rather than later with a full recovery come mid-2011. That is yet to be seen. Alarmist view dismissed recentlay and published in the Real Estate Weekly. A major Canadian bank believes fears of a future downturn in housing markets is more myth than reality. According to another article, homes throughout Vancouver and in all of Canada have become more affordable to typical homebuyers and this coupled with low interest rates and loans create opportunity for people looking for new homes. There is a better chance of buying an affordable new Vancouver home now than at any tie in the past decade says REBGV. With home sales and consumer confidence already bouncing back in certain cities and neighbourhoods, people and homebuyers have seen a long-term strength in investing in property and owning a home. With low interest rates and consumer confidence already hitting all-time lows and recovering, there are numerous opportunities for homebuyers to get back into the market. Overall Vancouver residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the Vancouver Board’s Housing Price Indix, decline 10.9% to $489,007 between January 2008 and 2009. The benchmark price for a Vancouver single family detached home declined 11.2% to $659,638 in Janaury 2009 compared to $742,490 January 2008. The same trends are seen in the Vancouver condominium/apartment market in addition to to a lesser extent, attached units like townhomes and duplexes. REBGV also reports that sales of detached Vancouver homes and apartment properties declined as much as 58.1% when comparing January 2008 to 2009. New listings in the Greater Vancouver real estate market have also declined. The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate to the lowest level in history to 1 per cent. The decrease was in line with the expectations of most Canadian economists, who have been calling for bold action on the parts of the Bank of Canada and the federal government. Shortly after the BoC rates fell, the big banks led by BMO and TD dropped their lending prime rates by the same amount.