Update on the Canada and Vancouver Real Estate Market: BoC Rate Decision, Bank Prime Rates, Mortgage Lending, Home Prices, Property Assessment Freeze

Canada Greater Vancouver Housing Starts Continue to Plunge

According to both Metro Vancouver News and 24 Hours Vancouver, the Greater Vancouver housing starts in most municipalities continue to plunge to record low levels admist the global economic problems and real estate sales declines. From MetroNews Vancouver: Groundbreaking housing starts falls for 6th straight months in Greater Vancouver to only 134,600, which represents a drop of 12.3%! Canadian housing starts fell by a greater than expected 12.3 per cent in February 2009, marking a sixth straight month decline in housing starts in Canada (consecutive months) and the lowest level since June of 2000, as domestic economy strugges through a major downturn. Groundbreakings on new homes dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 134,600 units last month from 153,500 in January 2009 with declines seen in the single and multiple dwelling Canadian real estate sectors, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said yesterday. The number of starts in February 2009 in Canada was below analyst forecasts fro 145,000 starts. But there was a silver lining in the weak numbers of the plunge in Canadian housing starts this month. While it suggests that builders are responding to weaker demand, which could have a short term negative effect on economic activity, it also indicates there may not be a severe oversupply of homes throughout Canada. Economists continue to describe the Canadian housing downturn as only a correction that will last the better part of 2009, and many experts expect the real estate markets in Canada to make a recovery in 2010 according to Reuters. Construction of urban single family homes in Canada real estate markets fell 11 per cent to 44,500 units, while multiple dwellings, like condos and townhome communities, dropped 17.5 per cent to 63,300 units throughout Canada, representing a huge plunge in Canadian housing starts for the sixth consecutive month. According to 24Hours Vancouver: Housing starts throughout the Lwoer Mainland plunged in February compared to a year ago, new stats from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggests. There were only 701 homes started in the Greater Vancouver real estate area last month, compared to 2,446 in February 2008, representing a whopping 71 per cent drop in Vancouver housing starts this February 2009. CMHC analysts are calling it a moderation in the Greater Vancouver real estate market. “New home construction slowing to more sustainable levels,” CMHC said in a news release regarding the sudden drop in housing starts in the Vancouver property market. It’s a trend seen in most areas of the country. Overall, Canadian urban centres saw an average drop of 60 per cent in housing starts last month compared to 2008 (a year earlier). But it’s also a change that’s hitting cities in the wallet just as property tax season comes around and finance officials struggle to balance their books and finances. In the City of Vancouver, revenue for building permits related to all forms of construction real estate has continued to fall as well. In January 2009, the value of building permits issued was 29 per cent lower than December 2008 (just a month earlier), and more than half the value of January 2008 (a year earlier), according to city officials. That represents a difference of $46 million on a total budget of roughly $900 million. By Irwin L of 24 Hours Vancouver.

Rate Decision by Canadian Banks Angers Some Home Owners

Canadians are speaking out against a decision by the big six banks not to fully match a big interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, as indicated in MetroNews Vancouver. A spokes person says the Consumers’ Association of Canada has received “hundreds of calls” from “outraged” Canadians across the country since the chartered banks decided to lower their prime rates by only 50 basis points. The central bank of Canada had earlier cut its trend-setting rate by 75 basis points. Consumers appear upset that the banks are blunting the impact of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, and that they are doing so at a time when they are tapping taxpayer-funded programs to bolster lending. Among those intiatives, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has tripled Ottawa’s mortgage purchase program to $75 billion and backstopped more than $200 billion in interbank loans. In a statement, Flaherty’s spokesperson noted the objective of both the mortgage purchase program and the lenders assurance facility is to “further improve credit availability and affordability,” for soncumser and businesses.

Is Now the Right Time to Buy Your First Vancouver Home?

According to Your Money section in Vancouver 24 Hours newspaper: Today’s economy has many people wondering if now is the right time to buy their first Vancouver home. With a moderate real estate market, interest rates at all-time lows and incentives for first time homebuyers announced in January’s Federal Budget, some think that now is a good time to make home ownership dreams into reality in the Greater Vancouver real estate market. Almost four of every ten Canadian or 38 per cent believe now is a good time to purchase an 32 per cent think it is a bad time, so it’s basically split in the middle, according to a report released recently by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals. “Residential mortgage consumers remain remarkably positive as they weather the financial storm,” the association says. The Conference Board of Canada also found that consumer confidence in the country rebounded slightly in January 2009 from a twenty seven year lo in December 2007. The organization says the number of people considering making a big purchase such a car or new home rose to 28.5 per cent from 26.7 per cent. An online survey conducted by CAAMP also reveals Canadians expect housing prices to fall: 35 per cent, more than twice as mnay as last fall.

Most Experts and Canadian Home Buyers Expect Stability in the Housing Prices for 2009

According to the front page Real Estate Weekly newspaper, 65 per cent of all Canadians expect home prices to increase or stay stable over the next year, according to a report from the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP). Many of the people’s attitudes are very positive even in the face of tough economic times and recession in the North American markets. Attitudes towards local conditions have shifted only slightly with 38 per cent of Canadians believing now is a goot time to purchase and 32 per cent believing it is a bad time. Mortgage arrears remain very low in Canada home market and steady at 0.28 per cent and 84 per cent of home owners are satisfied with their current home mortgages. The information was gathered by Maritz from an online survey of over 2,000 Canadians in mid October 2008. In addition to this report, some Canadians do expect housing prices to fall: 35 per cent, more than twice as many as last fall, now believe prices will drop; half o those survedyed gave a neutral answer while the number who thought prices would go up fell from 40% to 20%. In BC, hardest hit by the recent drop in property prices, 48% of those surveyed said they expect prices to fall, far above the national Canadian average.

Canada Housing Sales to Stay Stalled

According to MetroNews Vancouver, the first half of 2009 to be somewhat static according to a recent report. Canada’s real estate market is expected to be “somewhat static” for at least the next six months as the economic downturn makes potential buyers extra cautious, while the average house price is expected to fall, according to a report released yesterday. The Re/Max Housing Market Outlook, which tracks 22 real estate markets across the country, says it expects 440,000 homes to change hands in 2008, down 15 per cent from 2007. It predicted the same number of sales for next year, but the first six to nine months of 2009 will be under pressure from volatility in financial markets and the threat of recession. Housing markets across Canada real estate should recover as stability returns to the financial sector the Re/Max report said. If consumer confidence is restored and overall economic activity picks up, so should the housing market and a bounce back could occur “as early as spring.” Eleven major real estate markets in Canada are expected to match or exceed 2008 home sales next year. Report highlights: A buyers market emerged in the latter half of 2008. Housing values are expected to slip three per cent to an average of $300,000. Unit sales should match 2008 levels by year end 2009, but the average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000.

Vancouver House Prices to Fall 18% in 2009

The latest forecast for housing prices in Greater Vancouver calls for the bottom in 2010. By Jeff N. for the Black Press. House prices in B.C. are in for a two year slide that won’t bottom until 2010, predicts a leading economist. Helmut Pastrick of Central 1 Credit Union says the B.C. and Greater Vancouver housing market is heading into recession on the heels fo the global impact of the credit crisis. He projects median B.C. hose prices will fall 13 per cent in 2009 and drop another 5 per cent in 2010 before reaching a turnaround point. “A poor economic outlook for 2009 and tight credit conditions extending into next year will keep housing sales on a downward trajectory for several more months,” Pastrick said. Housing sales in Greater Vancouver real estate market, already down 30 per cent this year, will drop another 17 per cent in 2009, he said. Pastrick also projects a 37 per cent plunge in new construction next year as a result of a poor sales climate and tight credit environment. House starts should make a modest recovery in 2010, he added.

Property Assessment Freeze in Vancouver Real Estate Prices Expected – With Some Exceptions

According to Real Estate Weekly, the B.C. government is freezing 2009 property tax assessment to help ailing home owners who have felt the economic times and freeze in lending/financing for their homes. According to REW, the BC government will freeze all tax assessments for 2009 at the July 2007 levels (with some exceptions) because the July 2008 would misinterpret the value of their homes through 2009. July 2008 as many home owners know was the peak fo the real estate market here in British Columbia and Vancouver and would have been much higher than the market value through 2009 if the values were used in the 2009 tax assessments. Some of the exceptions include: new homes built on what were building lots, substantial renovations that add value to a property in addition to fires and other accidents causing damage will not have the same benefit and will be valued at the July 2008 market value. Please watch for www.bcassessment.ca for more information about this. Meanwhile, the national Canadian real estate states are lowest since 2002. The number of homes sold through the Canadian Multiple Listing Service plunged 14 per cent last on the weakest level since July 2002, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association since Friday. The statistics reflect tighter money and the erosion of Canadian’s sense of wealth because of continued stock market declines, CREA suggests. Changes in federal mortgage rules that shortened loan periods and made it more difficult for people with little down payment to finance a home, also had an impact on sales.

Mortgage Changes in Canada Will Have Little Effect

Another article according to the Real Estate Weekly suggests that the tightening of the Canadian mortgage bank lending rules will have little impact on homebuyer choices. With the abolishment of the 0% down mortgage and the decrease from a maximum 40 year amortization to 35 year amortization, these won’t make it more difficult for home buyers to get an affordable mortgage for their new home. The difference is so little monthly and over time that it won’t have a big impact on people’s decisions to buy or wait. Canadians regularly exercise their options to pay down their mortgage debt sooner as well according to REW. In fact most Canadian home owners repay their mortgage in 15 to 20 years or in far less time than the amortization periods affected by these new criteria. While the changes won’t deny many people the chance to own a home, they will help ensure our housing market stays strong.

New Canadian Homes Prices, Starts Defy Experts

According to REW, the price of new homes in Canada actually increased by 2.1 per cent in September 2008 on a year over year basis, slightly ahead of economist’s expectations, Stats Canada reported. The 12 month increase for Vancouver was 1.4 per cent and in Victoria, contractors’ selling prices increased 0.2 per cent year over year. Most analysts had called for a two per cent decline in new homes prices and much slower starts. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. however, reports that housing starts remained relatively strong, declining by just 3.1 per cent to 211,800 units in October from 218.600 in September.

Real Estate Investment – Thinking Long Term for your home

Cited by many as a somewhat non-intuitive benefit of this year’s market change is a growing return to the concept that your own home should be somewhere you live, an investment in real estate to be held for the long term rather than analyzed minute by minute against market fluctuations like stocks or bonds. After all, in the grand scheme of things, if you’ve found the perfct home – one you love, you can afford, and that meets all your criteria – history suggest the Chinese proverb that says “the best time to buy real estate was five years ago, but the next best time to buy real estate is today” remains valid advice for home buyers today. This is a great article written by S. Boyce for the New Home Buyer Guide of Greater Vancouver on the market outlook in Greater Vancouver for the upcoming year. Return to Village Living is another concept that home buyers have been embracing this year in 2008. Across all municipalities of the Lower Mainland, 2008 saw the new home real estate market in Vancouver change to be driven in large park by the multi-family sector. As the lock-and-go lifestyle becomes more about choice than nccessity, homebuyers in Lower Mainland of all generations are opting to let others take care of the daily hassle of maintenance. Amenities figure strong among these choices. Spa style clubhouses with state of the art fitness centre, even demonstration kitchens and multimedia rooma are showing in increasing frequency in new home construction in the Greater Vancouver real estate market these days. Some properties in Vancouver property market are even including on site temperature controlled wine lockers. WE also saw a strong leaning toward lifestyle centres like South Surrey’s Morgan Crossing and Garrison Crossing in Chilliwack real estate market. These multi phase property developments celebrate intergenerational living communities and the idea you can live, work and play in a neighbourhood where everything is within walking distance. Shopping and services rub shoulders with different types of housing. Recreational facilities are just down the road and services from laundry or doctors offices to banking and pet sitting just round the corner.

North Shore Real Estate Trends and Housing Value Predictions - Metro Vancouver Real Estate Prices Should Moderate through to 2009

House Sales Slow Across North Shore Real Estate

High supply makes for home buyers’ market according to Deneka of the North Shore News. After years of favourable conditions for home sellers, the North Shore real estate market appears to be giving buyers the upper hand, according to a new report issued by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Multiple Listing Service figures released by the board last week show that sales for both North Vancouver and West Vancouver real estate housing in June were down from the same time last year, while listings were up. The percentage of sales-to-listings for detached homes in North Vancouver last month was 28 per cent, while in June 2007 that figure stood at 93 per cent. In West Vancouver housing market, the percentage was 29 per cent last month and 64 per cent for the same time last year. For several months now there have been signs of moderation in the British Columbia home market as demand has eased off from the highs of last year, explained Cameron Muir, chief economist with the B.C. Real Estate Association. The North and West Vancouver housing real estate market has been rebalancing itself from the high demand state, and now there is actually higher supply than demand, meaning the property market is now favourable towards homebuyers.

“More balance between demand and supply means less upward pressure on home prices. It also reduces the chance of multiple bids on the same house in North or West Vancouver property, giving homebuyers more time to investigate properties thoroughly before purchasing,” said Muir in a recent press release. “This is probably a long-anticipated, realignment of the market,” he added in an interview. The B.C. Real Estate Association forecasts that residential sales for the Greater Vancouver area will fall by eight per cent his year, from 38,978 unit sales last year to 25,900 for 2008. They anticipate that in 2009 sales will again drop by three per cent for the area to 34,800 sales. Yet despite the fact that salese are dropping, home prices are not, explained David Watt, president of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board. According to the Board’s recent report, overall prices in the Greater Vancouver area were up 7.3 per cent in June compared to the same time last year, bringing the average residential property selling price to $564,982 last month.

In North Vancouver real estate housing market, since June 2007, the benchmark price of a detached home increased by 4.7 pe cent to $893,639, the average attached home price increased by 8.1 per cent to $608,225 and the average condo price rose by 4.4 per cent to $386,212. In West Vancouver housing real estate market, over the past year, detached home prices have risen by 0.9 per cent to an average of $1,428,139 while the average attached home price increased by 4.9 per cent to $719,783 and the average condo selling price was up by 6.9 per cent to $711,268. BCREA expects the rpcie increase will continue, but at a slower pace than the double digit increases seen over the past several years. According to their spring 2008 housing forecast, the association predicts that overall MLS selling prices for the Greater Vancouver area will rise by nine per cent this year to an average of $621,000 and will increase by an additional five per cent next year to $651,000. Lower year-over-year increases are a result of the rebalancing of the real estate market, said Muir. With more homes on the market in North and West Vancouver housing market, sellers need to be more educated and need to price their homes at reasonable prices so that their houses will sell. Homes that have been on the market for some time and that have been listed in anticipation of continued rising prices may have to re-evaluate their pricing, he said. “Although housing prices, on a year-over-year comparison, continue to show single-digit percentage increases, we are beginning to see more price reductions in properties listed on the market today,” Watt said in the press release. However, lower listing prices do not mean that home prices are decreasing, he explained in the interview. “It’s not even that prices have gone down, it’s just that they aren’t marked up,” he said.

Here are some updated North Vancouver MIRA resales condos in Lower Lonsdale re-sale real estate market at Mira on the Park townhomes.

With the North Vancouver housing market and West Vancouver real estate taking a downturn south of the border, many Canadians have grown wary that Canada will suffer the same fate as the United States, but comparing the two industries is a far stretch, said Gregory Klump, chief economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association. The U.S. housing market experienced extremely rapid price increases and poor lending practises which has now resulted in price corrections, he said. In Canada, on the other hand, price increases of the magnitude seen down south did not happen and Canadian lending always remained conservative, so a real estate market crash in Canada is not likely, he said. “We don’t see a crash on the horizon, we see it returning to normal levels,” he said. Some areas in Canada, however, have seen falling sales prices, according to a summer 2008 report issued by BMO Capital Markets. In Calgary, prices are down 2.4 per cent since last year and in Edmonton, prices have dropped by 4.8 per cent. Prices are also expected to drop in Saskatchewan, said Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets. British Columbia, on the other hand, did not see the major price mark-ups seen in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and so B.C. remains in good shape, he said. “the rate of price increases will slow, but it (B.C.) still has a pretty strong economy,” he said, adding that he predicts, “a soft landing, rather than a collapse.” A report issued by Landcor Data Corporation at the end of last month shows that some areas in British Columbia are faring better than others.

In 2001, sales values in the province totaled $19 billion; last year they totaled $62 billion and at the end of this year, the rate is expected to be over $61 billion, explained Rudy Nielsen, president of Landcor Data Corporation. “Things are cooling but things aren’t bad,” he said. “Overall, I look at B.C. as very positive,” he added, explaining that the province has great natural resources, good tourism and a high quality of life. Even in places where prices may decrease, he says homeowners just need to wait it out because prices will again increase. He said he expects the cooling period to only last two or three quarters before turning around next year sometime. As for the North Shore real estate market specifically, Watt said he believes it is secure and, if anything, real estate in North and West Vancouver will become more desirable as gas prices rise and people look at living in areas that are closer to the city core.

House Prices Start To Sag – North Vancouver Realtors Predict “Soft Landing”

An article written by Jeff for Black Press of the North Shore Outlook Newspaper. Real estate prices have begun to slip in some parts of the Lower Mainland. The cooling trend comes as realtors report high numbers of prospective sellers. “Real estate is cyclical and the numbers show that we’ve entered a buyer’s cycle,” said Kelvin Neufeld, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. Prices are still up by at least single digits year-over-year, but the stats indicate most cities saw prices peak sometime int eh second half of 2007 or early in 2008 and some areas have since been trending lower. In the Fraser Valley, the typical single family house fell by 0.3 per cent in price in the past 3 months, while apartments were up 0.4 per cent and townhouses rose 1.6 per cent. The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board reported its benchmark house price fell about $6,000 in June to $765,000, but that’s still up seven per cent from a year ago. Condo and townhouse prices are also down marginally in the past month. Detached houses in White Rock, Port Coquitlam and Burnaby fell more than $20,000 in price since April, the stats show. The biggest drop so far has been in West Vancouver, where detached houses fell more than 10 per cent in price in the last two months, from just under $1.6 million to $1.43 million. West Van house prices there are now up only 0.9 per cent year-over-year. “We’re experiencing a soft landing coming off the strongest and longest real estate cycle in our history,” Neufeld said. Sales are down sharply from a year ago across the region. New listings, meanwhile, are up and the number of unsold homes is rising. Realtors say sellers are in some cases having to moderate their expectations of how much they will get for their properties. We are beginning to see more price reductions in properties listed on the market today,” said Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board president David Watt.

Metro Vancouver Housing Market Moderates in 2008 and 2009, says the current release by Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation.

Strong economic and demographic fundamentals, steady job growth and population growth, along with continuing low mortgage rates – will support demand for new and resale Vancouver housing. However, softening consumer sentiment and high mortgage carrying costs will temper the effects of these positive factors, dampening home buyer demand in Metro Vancouver.

New Vancouver Home Construction and MLS Sales Will Dip Slightly, but say high from a historical perspective for the remainder of the year and through 2009. Vancouver home prices will rise, but at a slower pace than in the past few years, as an increasing supply of both new and existing homes for sale give Vancouver home buyers more choice and more time to make their purchasing decision.

MLS Sales in Metro Vancouver Real Estate Will Come Down off the Near-Record High Reached in 2007, but stay well above the ten year average of 31,000. Strong Vancouver home buyer demand, fuelled by job growth, and a steady flow of people moving to the region will keep sales brisk. However, waning consumer confidence and high mortgage carrying costs will constrain Vancouver home sales. MLS sales will dip eight per cent to 36,000 units in 2008, and a further three per cent in 2009 as mortgage rates start to creep up. The main factors tempering Vancouver home buyer demand will be high home prices and softening consumer sentiment. With the average resale home price in Metro Vancouver at more than $600,000 and still rising, some potential homebuyers will opt to delay their purchase. Some low equity and first time home buyers could find it difficult to negotiate a mortgage with achievable monthly carrying costs, in spit of low mortgage rates. At present active listings sold is around 25%, which is the amount that divides a Vancouver sellers market to a balanced market.

The Supply of Vancouver Resale Homes on the real estate market will grow as homeowners look to capitalize on the home equity build up resulting from four straight years of double digit home price increases. The decision to sell may take an added urgency in light of the Vancouver housing marketing downturn int eh US. In the first quarter of 2008, the average number of active MLS listings for sale in Metro Vancouver increased nine per cent p=compared to the same period last year; with the supply condominiums for sale increasing more than other home types. At the end of the first quarter there was a five month supply of Vancouver homes on the real estate market, up from four months. Over the last 10 years, the highest supply was in 1995 when it was at 12 months.

Home Building Will Be Robust: new home construction in the Vancouver real estate area will be near historic highs this year and next, but will dip slightly compared to last year’s swift pace. Some moderation in new Vancouver home building will be due to an easing in demand for new pre-construction homes as homebuyers are able to meet their housing needs int eh better supplied resale market. Secondly, tightening credit conditions for Vancouver real estate developers may make it more difficult to secure financing for new multi-family projects. Home starts will decline 8% this year, and a further 3% next. Two thirds of homes built last year were condo projects.

Condominiums And Rental Outlook Positive – Vancouver Resale Condo Market – existing Vancouver condo sales will moderate slightly, but stay high for the remainder of 2008 and through 2009. Demand for condominiums will be sustained by the strong fundamentals mentioned above and will also be bolstered by continuing low mortgage rates and the lower price of condo homes, compared to detached. The average MLS price of a condo in Metro Vancouver is now more than $400,000 below the average price of a house.

Expect the Supply of Condo Listings To Trend Up over the next 18 months as demand moderates. In the first quarter of 2008, the average number of active MLS condo listings in Vancouver for sale increased 16% compared to the same period last year. By end of first quarter, the supply of condos on the Vancouver real estate market increased to a 4 month supply, up from 3 months a year earlier. This signals demand and supply moving towards equilibrium.

New and Existing Condo Prices in Vancouver Will Continue to Rise, but at a slower pace in the past few years. Price growth will slow into the single digit range this year with 8% appreciation this year and 5% next.

New Vancouver Condo Construction absorptions of new condos have been closely tracking completions for the past year, with virtually all (98%) units absorbed upon completion. An estimated one half of units underway are pre-sold and the supply of completed, unsold new Vancouver units is growing slowly but remains at less than one third of the 10 year average level. Unsold supply is located mainly in Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows and Surrey. Vancouver has very few unsold units.

High starts and longer completion times have pushed the number of condos under construction to record highs, with over 20,000 units underway at he end of March 2008. At the current absorption rate of 600 condos per month, there is a 33 month supply of units coming on stream over the next 2-3 years. When Vancouver pre-sales condos is taken into account the number of months supply is halved to 16 months. The supply of unsold new condo Vancouver units will edge up as condo demand moderates from the buying frenzy of the past few years and as more resale condo listings become available through the remainder of 2008 and in 2009.

Speculative and Investor Activity speculation in Vancouver’s condo markets has been trending down over the past year and will continue to edge down as the pace of price growth slows this year and next. In 2007 almost one quarter of condo units in the Metro Vancouver were owned by real estate investors, a marginal dip from 5 years ago. Investor presence is higher in the downtown core, where 45% of condos are investor owned. The more expensive areas of downtown (Coal Harbour and False Creek North) have a slightly lower proportion of Vancouver investor units compared with less expensive areas.

Vancouver Economy will support housing demand solid local economic conditions in Metro Vancouver will support demand for housing this year and next. Economic growth of 3% or better is forecast for the region through 2009 with residential and non residential construction, as well as wholesale and retail trade growth. Vancouver home building will stay at high levels with non-residential construction, including Olympic related projects and non related projects, such as the Vancouver Convention Centre, ongoing work on the Vancouver International Airport and building renovations at UBC, will keep Vancouver’s builders busy.

Consumer spending, the largest component of domestic demand, will be spurred on by a growing population job and income growth. The unemployment rate is at 20 year low of 4% with 36,000 jobs added in the Metro Vancouver region last year. Strong job growth will continue and will support demand for homeownership and rental housing.

Vancouver’s healthy job market and growing international reputation as a clean, liveable city will draw people to the region from other provinces and from abroad. Greater Vancouver will gain more than 30,000 people through migration in each of the coming years. International migrants will account for most of this Vancouver growth, but the Vancouver region will continue to attract people from other provinces who are looking for jobs. This will sustain housing demand.

On the downside, one of the main factors limiting homebuyer Vancouver demand will be softening consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence is based on the US economic and housing slowdown, the sub-prime crises in the US and the economic slowdown in central Canada as well, the high Canadian dollar and low lumber prices in BC. While Metro Vancouver economy is diverse and somewhat insulated from these economic developments, downside risks to the economic outlook remain.

Mortgage rates will remain relatively flat.